Regime-Shifts & Post-Float Inflation Dynamics In Australia

Australia’s inflation rate and inflation uncertainty during the post-float era 1983Q3-2006Q4 have acted as important barometers of Australia’s macroeconomic performance. The conceptualisation and measurement of the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty is subject to complex dynamics. We use Markov regime switching heteroscedasticity (MRSH) model to capture long-run stochastic trend and short-run noisy components. This allows us to conclude that in post-float Australia the results deviate significantly from the mainstream Friedman paradigm on inflation and its uncertainty. We also critically review the plausibility of rival paradigm explaining this paradoxical behaviour. The regime shifts detected in the inflation dynamics appear to be linked to the macroeconomic policies pursued to achieve external and internal balance as implied by Keynesian Mundell-Fleming model.

Analysis and applications of autoregressive moving average models with stochastic variance

It is known that volatility plays a central role in financial modelling problems. This paper studies, in detail, a class of discrete time stochastic volatility (SV) models driven by ARMA models with innovations having a stochastic variances. The auto- correlation function of this class of models is derived and methods of identification of such processes are described. An example is added to illustrate the development of the theory over the standard methods

Analysis and Applications of Autoregressive Moving Average Models with Stochastic Variance

It is known that volatility plays a central role in ?nancial modelling problems. This paper studies, in detail, a class of discrete time stochastic volatility (SV) models driven by ARMA models with innovations having a stochastic variances. The auto-correlation function of this class of models is derived and methods of identi?cation of such processes are described. An example is added to illustrate the development of the theory over the standard methods.GARCH models, Volatility, Stochastic variance, Innovations, Heteroscedasticity, Random, Conditional expectation, Autocorrelation, Estimation

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertainty has positive and significant effects on inflation before the inflation-targeting period, but that the effect is significantly negative after the inflation-targeting period. On the other hand, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation and a positive effect on growth, while oil price rises significantly increase inflation for the UK. Results also indicate that inflation uncertainty significantly reduces output growth before and after the inflation-targeting period. These findings are robust and the Generalized impulse response functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for an inflation-targeting monetary policy, and for stabilization policy in general

Components of inflation uncertainty and interest rates : evidence from Australia and New Zealand

This paper tests an enhanced version of the Fisher hypothesis for Australia and New Zealand. This is achieved by extracting three components (structural, impulse and steady state) of inflation uncertainty using a structural time series model of inflation that includes an output gap as well. In general, there is a positive association between impulse uncertainty and nominal interest rates and a negative association between structural uncertainty and interest rates. However, the long run effect of inflation on interest rates is less than one and this indicates that Central Banks have some flexibility in their inflation-targeting strategies

Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA

Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general

Regime-shifts and post-float inflation dynamics of Australia

Australia's inflation rate and inflation uncertainty during the post-float era 1983Q3-2006Q4 have acted as important barometers of Australia's macroeconomic performance. The conceptualization and measurement of the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty is subject to complex dynamics. We use the Markov regime switching heteroscedasticity (MRSH) model to capture long-run stochastic trend and short-run noisy components. This allows us to conclude that in post-float Australia the results deviate significantly from the mainstream Friedman paradigm on inflation and its uncertainty. We also critically review the plausibility of rival paradigms e.g. Keynesian-Mundell-Fleming, Friedman-Ball, Cukierman-Meltzer and Holland, explaining this paradoxical behavior. The analyses presented here provide valuable insights to policymakers grappling with the challenge of designing monetary policy to combat the adverse effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty for Australia emerging out of the global financial crisis

Has the link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates changed after inflation targeting?

The purpose of this paper is to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation-targeting countries. The approach takes the form of a time-varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specification, used to derive impulse uncertainty and structural uncertainty. This study attempts to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation-targeting countries, i.e. Canada, Finland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. Decomposing inflation uncertainty into two components - impulse and structural, a positive association was found between the expected inflation and interest rates. Structural uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on interest rates for some countries. It has also been found that the long-run effects of inflation on interest rates are less than unity for the post-inflation targeting period, which implies that in some respect the Central Bank has been successful in targeting inflation. This has allowed the Central Bank to employ a less restrictive monetary policy in an environment of a credible inflation-targeting strategy. Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) can be used instead of GARCH modelling. This is the first study that has tried to establish the link between different types of inflation uncertainty and interest rates for the inflation-targeting countries to see the effect of inflation targeting

Inflation, inflation uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in Australia

Using quarterly data this study finds that inflation uncertainty have negative and significant effects on inflation and output growth at least after the inflation targeting. We also find that output uncertainty has negative and significant effect on inflation. The study uses a newly constructed oil price dummy variable as a control variable and finds that oil price changes significantly increase the inflation uncertainty. These findings are robust and the Generalised Impulse Response Functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for inflation targeting (IT) monetary policy, and the aim of stabilisation policy in general